One Planet News: Increase in temperature and pollution-related mortality

Climate Change: What value human life?

By Annette J Beveridge

MORE than 1.5 million people died from heat and cold extremes in 2000 and now a new study predicts a sharp increase in temperatures and pollution-related mortality in the years to come.

It is anticipated that a fifth of the global population will be affected raising the question of why we are not doing more to protect against climate change.

In a new study led by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, an international research team found that, under the most probable projection, annual mortality rates linked to air pollution and extreme temperatures could reach millions by the end of the century.

Research

Based on advanced numerical simulations, it is anticipated that pollution-related deaths are anticipated to increase five-fold, and temperature-related mortality could increase seven-fold.

Group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and adjunct associate professor at The Cyprus Institute in Nocosia, Cyprus, Dr. Andrea Pozzer, said: “In 2000, around 1.6 million people died each year due to extreme temperatures, both cold and heat.

“By the end of the century, in the most probable scenario, this figure climbs to 10.8 million, roughly a seven-fold increase. For air pollution, annual deaths in 2000 were about 4.1 million. By the century's close, this number rises to 19.5 million, a five-fold increase.”

It is anticipated that South and East Asia are expected to face the strongest increases. This will be driven by an aging population, with air pollution still playing a major role.

High-income regions - Western Europe, North America, Australasia, and Asia Pacific - deaths caused by extreme temperatures are expected to surpass those caused by air pollution.

In some countries including France, US, Japan, New Zealand plus England, the shift is already changing. Other countries will be affected according to research.

Andrea Pozzer said: “Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is a direct threat to public health.”

Director of the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C) of The Cyprus Institute and key contributor, Jean Sciare said: "These findings highlight the critical importance of implementing decisive mitigation measures now to prevent future loss of life."